Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
