A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
